Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 51.738616 57.349192 63.680243 71.433650 80.786547 91.857723 106.194260
2025-01-12 42.963459 49.889737 58.334511 69.650693 84.858157 105.313934 136.358991
2025-01-19 37.185745 44.343851 53.476071 66.411423 85.067537 112.524764 159.649118
2025-01-26 35.665493 43.714120 54.484051 70.694230 96.054464 137.745391 222.266179
2025-02-02 34.608482 43.444876 55.780274 75.417915 108.671788 170.061613 321.580666
2025-02-09 32.893093 42.012518 55.145635 76.964274 116.316191 196.524472 436.081412
2025-02-16 31.010620 40.122990 53.558022 76.627660 120.397737 217.464734 565.808780
2025-02-23 29.446543 38.539845 52.232981 76.469577 124.715000 241.129583 755.895564
2025-03-02 27.742942 36.604004 50.148088 74.649175 125.181368 255.356220 947.223685
2025-03-09 26.318133 34.983922 48.414822 73.216256 126.148860 271.788935 1227.371412
2025-03-16 24.617773 32.835162 45.652441 69.547262 121.372661 268.598169 1350.988473
2025-03-23 24.156161 32.572120 45.970995 71.738681 130.711271 318.035997 2545.753618
2025-03-30 23.088395 31.353368 44.689675 70.873590 133.048081 347.311897 4463.828135
2025-04-06 21.964465 29.988989 43.071688 69.175117 133.001822 368.436878 8273.209560
2025-04-13 20.705176 28.338518 40.841564 65.971962 128.255174 365.556460 11745.959632
2025-04-20 20.678001 28.673819 42.104741 70.209435 145.392775 494.198036 NaN
2025-04-27 20.673637 29.040246 43.452073 74.881204 166.182540 707.392613 NaN
2025-05-04 20.249540 28.672411 43.410709 76.410154 177.689985 902.263031 NaN
2025-05-11 19.633820 27.942378 42.627759 76.077348 182.590067 1059.261895 NaN
2025-05-18 19.082710 27.294356 41.953627 75.921049 188.239542 1271.024208 NaN
2025-05-25 18.388513 26.366029 40.677194 74.121044 186.834205 1371.510679 NaN
2025-06-01 17.779691 25.561508 39.596631 72.703982 186.679930 1513.991454 NaN
2025-06-08 16.969309 24.375754 37.711212 69.074783 176.318405 1384.158339 NaN